• Barrow , September 7 1999

Lidar data & Predicted gap evolution
Predicting the cloud onset on September 7 1999, Barrow site:
"Gap"= difference between actual- and dewpoint-temperature profiles: an onset occurs when  the  "gap" reaches "0"

Prediction has started at 9:03 GMT, driven by the operator of evolution which has been estimated over the time window  7:30 - 9:00 GMT.
Once this "evolution operator" is determined the "initial-value" problem is solved with the COIF software. Thus, the prediction of the gap for cloud onset (gap = 0) is based on the estimation of the "evolution operator" between 7:30 and 9:00 GMT.
Note:
the "gap" first increases as we move away (in time) from the cloud that disappears at about 7:30 GMT, and then
decreases to zero==> cloud-onset is predicted to occur at about 12:30 GMT.
With respect to the lidar backscatter data a cloud base on 0.4 km disappears at about 7:30 GMT,  and then
occures around 0.25 km at about 13:00 GMT

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Gennady Ryzhikov
                                                                                 aka Геннадий Рыжиков

Gennady Ryzhikov
aka Геннадий Рыжиков

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